Thinking in Bets

“Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke

My Summary

Life is more like poker than chess. In chess, the pieces are known, piece positions are known, movement patterns are known, and you can see them at all times. At its extreme, chess is like a large mathematical exercise where there is always an optimal move. However, in poker, much like life, information is hidden, opponents can purposely deceive you, and a lucky hand can still beat a strategically played hand. At anytime, a new poker player still has a chance at winning the pot. But in chess, a new player will almost always be destroyed by a more seasoned player.

In light of this, we should “think in bets”. That is, we should weigh outcome and decision quality separately, find truth seeking groups that purposefully engage and express opposing viewpoints to find the truth, and practice sound, scenario planning.

My Notes